Music Lessons 3
Music Lessons är en undersökning och rapportserie från KTH som gjordes 2005 och i den sjunde rapportdelen, Business models and expected effects, finns följande sammanfattning av dess innehåll (den är publicerad på engelska):
We have argued that the new MP3 format for music together with the existence of cheap mass-storage technology in combination with file sharing systems is about to substitute ordinary listening to broadcast radio. We have also argued that the new MP3 format has proven to be good enough for persons to “sample” pieces of music to single out what to buy out of larger offerings. New media do not succeed because they are like old media but better.
They succeed because they do new things better than old media and thus fit the consumers preferences better. Three categories of file-shareres have been defined in previous Musiclessons reports – “free-riders”, “samplers” and “technology lovers”. The categories are derived from own investigations complemented with studies of reports from similar studies outside Musiclessons. Most of the input to the definition of the three categories come from file-sharing of music but with some argumentation we see no reason why the at least the categories “free-riders” and “samplers” will be relevant for most content. Based on these categories and a business plan approach we can derive a number of business models:
• Licensing model
• Advertising/promotion model
• Subscription/retail/e-commerce model
Most of them mimic similar models in the physical world but with considerable effects on the value chain. All stakeholders in the value chain (creators/developers, publishers, distributors, retailers, consumers) and society will experience both positive and negative effects.
The turbulence we experience today in the music industry value chain is a logical
consequence of a technology shift from quality audio coding, storage of bits on a plastic disc (CD), physical distribution and exposure and marketing done by the rights holders to the new MP3 audio format, cheap electronic random access memories, and file sharing systems doing the job of transportation and marketing. We expect that stakeholders in the value chains for other kind of media will encounter similar loss of control as the music industry. However other parts of the media industry may not have the same difficulty to take file-sharing into account in their business models.
• In order to fully appreciate the new business models some new technology is needed.
• A license model will require anonymous monitoring of the use of new and old
content in order to be able to distribute license fees to IPR holders
• DRM methods that are monitoring and not overly intrusive. This is important for
such models as subscription models.
• New measurement methods in the network that do not conflict with consumer
privacy to monitor that users who are interestred in file-sharing of content really pays.
• Refined query and search tools in P2P networks allowing users to find a “needle in a
The average user is both a creator and a consumer of new content. We point out several
new areas where users activities cause the web to become a user driven media and
entertainment channel. A large number of new media areas will start to evolve. Some old will erode and society will experience many new clashes between the users’ interests and large established private actors. Many of these areas are potential users of P2P technology since client-server based solutions (hub and spoke structure) costs too much and income is low – at least in the beginning.
We have listed numerous effects both positive and negative of the new business models on the users, retailers, distributors, publishers, creators/developers and society. The main ones are:
• Consumers can become creators in a new way and thus a larger cultural offering than what is available today. Consumers will use content for experimentation, inspiration and create new opportunities in a turbulent time until all actors begin to find their roles. Individuals must be reasonably protected during this transition phase, which may not be short. IPR will be more difficult to protect and control over content since users will reject intrusive and controlling DRM.
• New business models such as licensing and subscription models will mean stable and predictable revenue streams. New business with stable and predictable income will attract new sources of risk capital not neseccary coming from media itself.
• The web will take over some of the marketing roles TV and radio broadcast have today. Traditional players will have difficulties in undersatanding how to cope with that. On the other hand new content actors understanding how web promotion business models works will find large audiences and large markets for their physica products and experiences they deliver.
• Publishers and creators will have new possibilities to use DRM to monitor and control content. Consumers will reject too controlling and intrusive DRM. One can expect a turbulent period for some time to come including experimentation with more and more distributed and anonymous P2P networks.
• All actors in the traditional media value chain will be affected and some will have large difficulties to adapt their business models and include P2P networks.
• Operators will have to adapt to the new sitation and accept involvement in the billing process as opposed to a rejection based on lack of conduit responsibility.
Stimulating all actors to develop voluntary licensing models will be important. If not
successful governments will have to take action.
Den här delen av rapporten visar hur hela produktionskedjan inom musikindustrin påverkas och att det finns möjligheter för nya affärsformer att växa fram. Denna utveckling går inte att hindra för de nya distributionsformerna är överlägsna de gamla. Slutsatserna i rapporten gäller som jag ser det också för filmindustrin och kommer i framtiden förmodligen att påverka även bokmarknad, tidskriftsmarknad och tidningsmarknad. Ja den utvecklingen har väl redan börjat.
Rättegången mot The Pirate Bay (TPB) är i detta perspektiv bara de misslyckade företagens sätt att bevara status quo. Vilket naturligtvis är dömt att misslyckas. De aktuella företagen, som liger bakom åtalet mot TPB, kör bara ner sig själva ännu mer i skiten. (nu snackar vi förstås om inom-kapitalistiska lösningar)
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